The Tide TableOptions expiration calendar, 2026 and 2027

The monthly cycle, month by month

Each row is one month of trading days, weekends left out. The shading is one rule applied to every month from the real dates: it starts at the hinge (the earlier of that month’s VIX expiration and its OPEX), stays solid through the Friday of the week after OPEX, then fades to the first trading day of the next month. Letters mark the main dated events.

CPI release dates after December 2026 aren’t published yet; they’ll be added when BLS publishes its schedule, never guessed. FOMC dates are tentative until the Fed confirms each one at the meeting before. On a computer, hover a day for its details. Every date is listed with its source below.

How much of the year is shaded. In 2027, the core week covers 82 of 251 trading days (33%). With the fade it’s 133 (53%). The run-in is everything else. Something is always about to expire, which is why the bands describe conditions, not calls. What the evidence says.

Why expirations move the tide

Most of this way of reading the calendar comes from Cem Karsan (@jam_croissant on X), founder of Kai Volatility Advisors. What follows is our plain-words summary of his framework, not his words. We’re not affiliated with Cem; follow him for the source material.

The other dates on the calendar

Quarterly OPEX

March, June, September and December carry more open interest than other months, and the quarterly ES contract expires with them. In Cem’s view the tails fatten in both directions into a quarterly expiration, and conditions are often supportive after it.

Quarter-end

JPMorgan’s Hedged Equity fund (JHEQX) resets a large S&P 500 options collar on the last business day of each quarter. In Cem’s framework its strikes act like magnets into the reset, and the reset itself is a big supply of volatility.

FOMC and CPI

Implied volatility tends to be bid into a scheduled event and to drop once it passes. In Cem’s framework that drop feeds the same dealer flows as an expiration, which is his explanation for the relief moves that can follow a Fed decision or a CPI print.

The ES roll

CME’s roll date is the Monday before the quarterly expiration; after it the next contract is the lead month. It matters for continuous charts and for which contract you’re actually looking at.

Index events

S&P 500 quarterly rebalances and Russell reconstitutions bring large trades at the close. The S&P rebalance lands on quad-witching day; the Russell reconstitution falls about a week before or after one. They’re here for the flows, not because they’re part of Cem’s cycle.

The words

Gary

Cem’s nickname for dealer positioning: the gorilla in the room.

Vanna

How an option’s delta changes when implied volatility changes. Falling implied vol shrinks put deltas, so dealers buy back hedges.

Charm

How an option’s delta changes as time passes. It speeds up close to expiration.

Vixperation

VIX expiration day. Also spelled vixpiration.

Cem’s own caveats, and ours

• A window is a shift in the odds, not a call for a decline. It doesn’t mean the market has to go down.
• It opens only if the volatility supply allows it. When the flows are different, the picture is different.
• The giveback can happen in time instead of price. A sideways week counts.
• Flows everybody knows about get front-run, and that weakens them.
• Dealer positioning is estimated from models, not observed. Every chart of it rests on assumptions.

How I use it

The options calendar, quickly